Balance cost and carbon.
Explore SAF allocations by departure airport and route. Compare fuel spending with expected lifecycle GHG reductions, and identify supply that should remain flexible.
YOUR PLANNING WORKSPACE
Tomorrow’s decisions. A clearer view.
Planning assumptions. Planning results depend on scenario inputs for weather, probabilities, suppliers, and prices. Recommendations are planning estimates; no orders are placed. Fuel volumes use US gallons; screening density 0.80 kg/L (3.0283 kg/US gal), applied to both fuels.
Your commitment snapshot.
Tomorrow’s headline decisions. Open a section below to explore the detail.
Next decision windows
Release deadlines in UTC, relative to delivery day.
Plan each outbound route.
Select an origin and destination, inspect risk, and review the SAF allocation.
ORIGIN → DESTINATION
Understand the impact of each route.
SAF is uplifted at origin; destination conditions inform the outbound commitment.
Outbound route recommendations
Daily route groups for fictional airlines. Destination risk affects each route, not every departure from the origin.
| Airline / route group | SAF uplift | Destination outlook | Route risk | Firm / flexible | Decision |
|---|
Route risk combines origin, destination and en-route assumptions. No live weather or airline schedule feeds. SAF targets are aggregate US gallons across the daily route group.
Tomorrow’s supply network
Flight destinations and physical supply lanes, shown separately.
Firm allocationConditional holdSupply hubRoutes are schematic, not flight tracks
Edit airlines & route assumptions
Origin, destination & airline
One row represents a daily group of flights. Departure is the earliest uplift-dependent departure; allow two hours to refuel. Arrival timing is a scenario assumption.
| Airline / group | Origin | Destination | SAF target (US gal) | En-route risk (%) | Departure UTC | Duration (h) |
|---|
Balance fuel cost and carbon.
Optimize the selected route’s fuel mix, then explore the conventional-fuel alternative.
COST & GHG OPTIMIZER
Find your fuel balance
Choose how much of this route’s allocated SAF tranche to retain. Compare tomorrow’s cash spend with expected lifecycle emissions.
How this trade-off is calculated
This optimizes one selected route’s existing allocation, keeping its supplier mix fixed. It does not find a network-wide optimum or execute a reallocation. SAF quantities are neat-SAF-equivalent US gallons, not the complete aircraft fuel load; other fuel is unchanged. Both choices are evaluated using lifecycle CI, including the SAF emissions already represented in its CI.
For Q allocated US gallons and x US gallons retained as SAF: expected reduction = p × d × x × (comparator CI − SAF CI) × LHV × kg/US gal / 1,000,000. Expected tranche emissions = p × Q × comparator CI × LHV × kg/US gal / 1,000,000 − expected reduction. Cost = p × [x × (d × SAF price + (1 − d) × jet price) + (Q − x) × jet price] + (Q − x) × switching fee. For already-owned SAF, its purchase price is sunk and excluded from new cash spend; inventory value is not refunded.
p is the modelled probability of the route operating, and d is the probability that planned SAF reaches the aircraft (1 − origin delivery failure; 1 for SAF already owned). If SAF does not arrive, the flight uplifts conventional jet fuel at the jet price. p × d matches the planner’s P(planned uptake), so this tab and the overview report the same expected reduction for a route. Purchases are conditional on operation and arrival; switching fees apply regardless. Conventional jet fuel availability is assumed. Conditional holds are candidate quantities, not confirmed supply. Expected cash is not the budget required to fund a flight that operates. Later SAF use, holding/diversion burn, storage costs, carbon credits and compliance penalties are excluded. A user-declared contract lock restricts the mix to retaining all SAF; it is not an automated regulatory check.
Budget mode maximizes expected reduction subject to its cash ceiling. Target mode minimizes expected cash subject to the minimum reduction. Carbon-value mode minimizes cash plus internal carbon price × expected lifecycle emissions; this internal value is not a cash charge. Linear assumptions can produce an all-SAF or all-conventional recommendation.
Scenario inputs · Future-use savings are not credited here · Apply changes only the comparison below
COST · SUPPLY · CARBON
Conventional fuel fallback
Compare the selected route’s planned SAF tranche with conventional jet fuel. Other flight fuel is unchanged.
Disruption, reuse & contractual assumptions
What-if only · User-editable price assumptions · Equal-energy substitution (same assumed LHV) · No live fuel availability check · No orders or reallocation executed
Make the scenario yours.
Edit supplier offers, airport assumptions, and delivery lanes. These inputs feed the same planning engine.
Set your guardrails
Recommendations update as you adjust.
$0$1.5m
Commit moreRetain flexibility
ConservativeAccept more risk
A hold is proposed only if release at reassessment can still meet the delivery deadline.
Supplier offers
Scenario-based neat SAF availability and lifecycle CI. Prices exclude lane freight.
Airport outlook & receiving limits
Airport disruption is used at origin and destination. Supply delivery failure applies only at origin. Weather is a scenario-based daily outlook, not an arrival-time forecast.
| Airport | Outlook | Wind (kt) | Disruption (%) | Delivery failure (%) | SAF target / cap (US gal) | Receive by (delivery day, UTC) |
|---|
Delivery lanes
Latest release = receiving deadline − transit time. Lane capacity applies to firm plus conditional quantities.
| Supplier → airport | Transit (h) | Freight ($/US gal) | Capacity (US gal) | Latest release | Can wait? |
|---|
Origin supply totals
All outbound route allocations aggregate here. Shared supply is counted once.
| Airport / outlook | Origin risk | Firm | Flexible | Expected savings¹ | Decision |
|---|
¹ Expected tomorrow-use savings from firm allocations only. Conditional holds are excluded. All quantities are US gallons of neat SAF equivalent.
Supply disposition
Firm, conditional, and unassigned capacity.
US + EUROPE · SUPPLY DIRECTORY
Find where SAF has a footprint.
Explore airport and FBO supply records, check the evidence, then bring an airport into your disruption scenario.
SAF airport coverage
Directory checked 24 October 2026 · EUROCONTROL map updated 7 July 2026 · 4AIR record dates shown per location.
Supply evidence is not tomorrow’s inventory. This combines all airport records retrievable from the EUROCONTROL/ECAC map and US/European airport groups in 4AIR’s physical SAF directory, plus selected airline announcements. Coverage is not guaranteed exhaustive. Reported supply, occasional use, historical deliveries and projects are labelled separately. FBO supply may serve business aviation only. Confirm the supplier, available US gallons, blend, delivery window and contract eligibility before committing.
| Airport | Country / region | Supply evidence & provider | Plan |
|---|
“Add to scenario” creates zero-capacity delivery lanes and zero demand. Enter your own weather risk, inventory and logistics in Supply & Constraints, then create a route. Prices, carbon intensity and supplier stock are scenario assumptions until replaced with verified data. Airport metadata: OurAirports via DataHub airport-codes.
FOR FUEL SUPPLIERS · MONTHLY ALLOCATION
Send each batch where it earns the most.
Stack federal, state and EU/UK mandate value by destination, net of freight, and let an exact optimizer place every gallon. Compare against a credit-blind “nearest airport” plan.
Screening model with editable batch assumptions. Credit prices and program rules were checked and are editable under Prices, rules & obligations. Not tax, legal or trading advice; confirm eligibility with each program.
Where each batch goes ·
Bars show value per gallon by source. Freight is already deducted from the total. The last column is what 10,000 more gallons of uptake at that airport would add per gallon.
| Airport | Program | Gallons placed | From | Net value per gallon | +10k gal uptake |
|---|
Mandates & caps
Penalties avoided count only up to your obligation.
Batches
Placed volume and what 10,000 more gallons of each batch would be worth.
| Batch | Placed | Unplaced | +10k gal |
|---|
Batches, airports & lanes
SAF batches this period
Three CI values because programs score differently: LCFS pathway CI (CA/OR/WA), 45Z rate excluding ILUC, and ICAO/CORSIA CI including ILUC (RFS screen, MN, WA, EU, UK).
| Batch | Terminal | Volume (US gal) | Feedstock | Feedstock origin | LCFS CI | 45Z CI | ICAO CI | RFS pathway |
|---|
Destination airports
Uptake is the most each airport’s buyers will take this period. Premium is any contracted price above jet.
| Airport | Program | Uptake (US gal) | Premium ($/gal) |
|---|
Delivery lanes
Terminal to airport freight and the most each lane can carry this period. A batch ships only from its own terminal.
| From terminal | To airport | Freight ($/gal) | Capacity (US gal) |
|---|
Prices, rules & obligations
One linear program, every gallon.
Each batch–airport pair gets a per-gallon value: contracted premium − freight + RINs (US use only) + LCFS/CFP/CFS credits at that state’s benchmark + state SAF credit + 45Z (producer credit; North American feedstock only, so it does not steer destination). EU and UK gallons earn mandate value: the ReFuelEU minimum penalty avoided per gallon up to your obligation, and UK certificates (GHG-weighted per the DfT formula) at the buy-out price up to your obligation, then at your surplus sale price. Minnesota’s credit stops at the program cap while MN gallons keep their other value. The optimizer maximizes total value subject to batch volumes, airport uptake and lane capacity, and is compared with a plan that fills the cheapest-freight lanes first.
Simplifications: one CI per program family; RIN eligibility is a per-batch input; Illinois’ credit is claimed by airlines, so only the captured share counts; ReFuelEU shortfalls also carry into next year, so the penalty understates their cost; crop-based SAF never counts toward EU or UK mandates.
FOR AIRLINES · COMPLIANCE YEAR
Meet SAF and carbon obligations when weather and supply don’t cooperate.
Decide how much SAF to contract, from whom and where, before the year starts. The plan is tested against weather seasons and supplier shortfalls, uses backups only when needed, and claims each tonne once against EU ETS, CORSIA or your own SAF target.
Airline, network and offer scenario inputs. Obligation rules and prices were checked ; every value is editable under Network, offers & rules. Screening model, not legal or trading advice.
Left plans for the cheapest average year. Right gives more weight to the worst 10% of scenarios: costlier on average, much less exposed when storms and shortfalls hit together.
Contracts to sign
Recommended tonnes per offer, next to what a plan sized for an average year would sign. Take-or-pay on delivered volume; shortfall risk is the chance the supplier delivers only 20–80%.
| Supplier · airport | Price · CI | Shortfall risk | Recommended | Average-year plan |
|---|
How each scenario plays out
Extra cost above the cheapest scenario, for this plan (bar) and the average-year plan (line). Rows are sorted from worst to best.
This planAverage-year plan
| Scenario | Shortfalls | Backups used | Extra cost | Total |
|---|
Where SAF is claimed
Expected tonnes by obligation. Each tonne counts once.
Obligations by region
What binds airlines in each region, and what this plan models.
| Rule | Region | In this plan |
|---|
Network, offers & rules
Flight groups
Annual fuel burn in metric tonnes and the airports where the fuel is uplifted. Mark which obligations each group carries.
| Group | Fuel (t/yr) | Uplift airports | EU ETS | CORSIA | Departs EU |
|---|
Supplier offers
Delivered price per tonne at the airport, CI by the CORSIA method, and the yearly chance of a shortfall. Hurricane-exposed suppliers fail three times as often in severe seasons.
| Supplier | Airport | Max (t) | Price ($/t) | CI | Shortfall risk (%) | Hurricane exposed |
|---|
Spot SAF
Bought only when a scenario needs it. Half as available and 30% dearer when two or more contracts fall short.
| Airport | Max (t/yr) | Price ($/t) | CI |
|---|
Decide now, adapt in every scenario.
A two-stage stochastic linear program. Stage one picks contract tonnes. In each scenario, weather adds fuel burn (raising ETS and CORSIA obligations) and diverts uplift away from EU airports, suppliers deliver part of their contracts, and the plan claims each delivered tonne on one flight group at its airport: ETS flights save allowances (SAF counts as zero emissions) and earn SAF-allowance support; CORSIA flights cut offsets by 3.16 × (1 − CI/89) tCO₂ per tonne for fuel with at least 10% lifecycle reduction; every tonne counts toward the corporate target. Shortfalls are covered by spot SAF, book-and-claim certificates (target only), allowances, CORSIA units, or an internal target-gap cost. The objective blends expected cost with the average of the worst 10% of scenarios (CVaR).
Simplifications: no take-or-pay on undelivered volume; one CORSIA sector growth factor for all routes; SAF on each flight group is limited to a 50% blend split evenly across its airports; the ReFuelEU 90% uplift fine applies only if diversions exceed 10% of EU-departing fuel.
LIVE · ESTIMATED SAF IMPACT
See what SAF is doing in the sky right now.
Aircraft near an airport from public ADS-B feeds, each with an estimated fuel burn, SAF share and CO₂ avoided. Departures of your airline carry the SAF your Compliance Plan puts at that airport; other flights carry an average you set.
Estimates, not measurements. SAF is blended into an airport’s shared fuel supply, so no feed can show which aircraft burned it. This view allocates SAF the way book-and-claim accounting does. Burn rates are typical values by aircraft type; CO₂ avoided uses the CORSIA convention 3.16 × (1 − CI/89). Checked .
Aircraft around the airport
Blue: your airline. Green: other airlines counted at the average share. Grey: not counted (faint: private or business aircraft). Hover an aircraft for details.
Flights and their estimated SAF
Departing means climbing within 60 km of the airport, so it fuelled there. Your airline’s other flights use the plan’s network average because their origin is unknown.
| Flight | Type | Altitude · speed | Phase | Fuel burn | SAF share | CO₂ avoided |
|---|
From a position report to tonnes of CO₂.
Every 15 seconds the page asks for aircraft within the chosen radius. Public ADS-B feeds only answer servers, not other websites, so the request goes through a relay: the AeroCommit server when you run npm start, or a relay you deploy from proxy/cloudflare-worker.js and paste above. The relay asks adsb.lol first and airplanes.live if adsb.lol does not answer, caches each area for 10 seconds and spaces calls to airplanes.live at least 1 second apart, as its free API requires. The feed behind each update is named and linked above the map. If none answers, the page shows simulated traffic and says so. Only airline flights are counted; private, business and training aircraft are listed but left out of the totals. Each airborne aircraft gets a typical cruise burn for its type (2,500 kg/h when the type is unknown). Its SAF share comes from your Compliance Plan when it is your airline (the contracted tonnes at the departure airport divided by the fuel your flight groups uplift there), or from the average you set for other airlines. CO₂ avoided per hour = burn × SAF share × 3.16 × (1 − CI/89). The running total adds up the hourly rate between updates while the tab is open.
Limits: ADS-B gives no origin or destination, so phases are inferred from altitude, climb rate and distance; burn rates ignore phase of flight, load and weather; the demo plan belongs to a fictional airline, so choose the real carrier you want to treat as running on it.
Flight data credits. adsb.lol: data © adsb.lol contributors, available under the Open Database License 1.0. airplanes.live: free REST API, used under its API terms for non-commercial use, rate limited to 1 request per second. Commercial deployments use adsb.lol only (FLIGHT_FEEDS=adsblol) unless airplanes.live has given permission. Aircraft positions are not stored.
A decision you can explain.
Transparent assumptions, visible constraints, and a clear boundary between forecasts and evidence.
Can the supply get there?
Each lane must meet the earlier of the origin receiving deadline and two hours before the route departure. Both firm allocations and conditional holds share supplier stock, origin and route target caps, lane capacity, and total budget.
Latest release = min(origin receive-by, departure − 2h) − transit hours
Firm allocations must be releasable at the planning clock. Holds must be releasable at the later of the planning clock and reassessment time.
Where is the expected benefit?
Divisible US gallons are allocated by an exact linear program, solved in the browser with no external service.
Maximize Σ US gallons × savings per US gallon × P(planned uptake)
Stage 1 commits firm volume subject to supplier stock, origin and route caps, lane capacity, the purchase budget, the risk threshold and the minimum non-firm share. Stage 2 then maximizes conditional holds from whatever remains. Each stage is a proven optimum for its objective; ties go to the cheaper delivered supply. Firm volume is prioritized over holds, so the two-stage result is lexicographic rather than a single joint optimum.
The original greedy ranking (savings × probability ÷ delivered price) is kept as a baseline. It can strand cheap, low-CI supply on one route when another route has no alternative supplier; the linear program avoids this. The CSV export reports both.
Weather changes timing, not fuel CI.
tCO₂e / US gal SAF = (baseline CI − SAF CI) × LHV × kg/US gal ÷ 1,000,000
CI is in gCO₂e/MJ; LHV is in MJ/kg. The comparison assumes equal-energy substitution and aligned lifecycle boundaries. Net supplier CI is an input; allocation and production modeling are outside this prototype.
Volume conversion assumes 0.80 kg/L for SAF and conventional fuel: 1 US gal = 3.785411784 L; 1 metric tonne ≈ 330.22 US gal. Actual batch density should replace this screening assumption in operational use. Defaults 89 gCO₂e/MJ and 43 MJ/kg are screening assumptions, not a regulatory eligibility determination. Contrail effects are excluded.
Keep outcomes distinct.
P(planned uptake) = (1 − origin risk) × (1 − destination risk) × (1 − en-route risk) × (1 − origin delivery failure)
Combined route disruption = 1 − (1 − origin risk) × (1 − destination risk) × (1 − en-route risk). This simplifying independence assumption can be wrong when weather affects several airports, the route, and logistics together. These inputs represent disruption preventing the planned SAF uptake, not any minor delay. Wind and hazard labels do not directly calculate probabilities. Disruption means the planned uplift does not occur on the delivery day; it does not mean fuel is destroyed or lifetime savings disappear.
Flexible quantities are internal planning holds with full purchase cost ring-fenced. They are not purchased options, guaranteed supplier reservations, or executed orders. No option fees, cancellation penalties, storage costs, contract minima, or cross-day inventory are modeled.
What a production version would connect
Timestamped weather and airport advisories; airline fuel demand; supplier inventory and quotes; contractual release windows; certified batch CI and retirement records. This prototype has no live feeds. Saving a scenario stores it only in this browser.